Netanyahu’s delusions

From the Editor of The Tablet, 1 August 2024

Where would Israel be without the support of the United States? It would promptly have to look for a peaceful resolution of the long-standing conflict with Arab Palestinians. It could no longer afford its armed forces at their present size, and it would have to find the best currently available solution to the problems of Gaza, not least the presence there of an undefeated Hamas. It would have to bring to an end, by force if necessary, the systematic bullying of Palestinians in the West Bank occupied areas. And it would have to reach an accommodation with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which implies finding a live-and-let-live agreement with Iran. So the Israeli government’s boast of “ourselves alone, if necessary” would only be tenable, once America withdrew its support, if there was a major change in Israeli policy.

The fact that none of these things seems likely to happen any time soon may logically imply that the US has a much greater responsibility for the way Israel conducts itself than it likes to admit. It certainly does try to exert influence, but with little evidence that it is ever really heeded. Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers have developed many nimble sidesteps to defuse American pressure. It rarely meets that pressure with a point-blank refusal. It enters negotiations in response to American demands for a ceasefire with Hamas and the unblocking of humanitarian aid, but holds out – deniably – for unachievable conditions.

Yet Netanyahu’s own position is weak, and it is likely he would lose an early election. He has a strong interest in sustaining Israel’s present aggressive posture, as it helps him hold on to power. Indeed, defiance of American demands may make him more popular with sections of Israeli public opinion, especially those linked to Israeli West Bank settlements or sympathetic to a religious Zionist call for the restoration of the biblical Promised Land.

There is a section of American opinion among Evangelical fundamentalists which goes along with that as part of its own agenda. The prophesied Second Coming of Christ will not arrive until the Jews return to Palestine and the Gospel is preached to the whole world – and the Jews are converted to Christ. These somewhat implausible beliefs are a significant strand in American public opinion, close to the exceptionalist ideology of Trump’s Make America Great Again movement.

Both the US and Israel would do well to ponder the lessons of the Suez Crisis of 1956. Britain, France and Israel jointly attacked Egypt while denying “collusion”. In American eyes, particularly those of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Britain was in the grip of a post-imperial delusion, namely that it could still reorder the world to suit itself. So Eisenhower took steps to make plain that Britain’s economic ties with the US were at risk unless the Suez adventure was abandoned. And so it was, with a face-saving formula. President Joe Biden has never had the courage, or the willingness, to do to Israel what Eisenhower did to Britain. Would Kamala Harris do so, if elected? Would Donald Trump? We must wait – and hope.